COVID-19 and Food Security in Ethiopia: Do Social Protection Programs Protect?

We assess the ability of Ethiopia's flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), to mitigate the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both prepandemic in-person household survey data and a postpandemic phone survey. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-differences approach, we find that household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap increased by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually almost all of this adverse change;the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households, and the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of the PSNP was greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators, and how we account for the nonrandomness of mobile phone ownership. Furthermore, PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points.

COVID-19 and Food Security in Ethiopia: Do Social Protection Programs Protect?

We assess the ability of Ethiopia's flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), to mitigate the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both prepandemic in-person household survey data and a postpandemic phone survey. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-differences approach, we find that household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap increased by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually almost all of this adverse change;the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households, and the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of the PSNP was greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators, and how we account for the nonrandomness of mobile phone ownership. Furthermore, PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points.

Respondent Fatigue Reduces Dietary Diversity Scores Reported from Mobile Phone Surveys in Ethiopia during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) has been used extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effects of respondent fatigue during these interviews on responses to questions about diet are unknown. OBJECTIVES: We designed an experiment that randomized the placement of a survey module on the dietary diversity of rural Ethiopian women and assessed whether responses were altered by placing this module earlier or later in a phone survey. METHODS: Two CATIs were implemented; in the second, women were randomly assigned to answer questions on diet diversity either earlier or later in the interview. Women's Dietary Diversity Scores were the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were dichotomous measures of consumption from four or more and five or more food groups and consumption of food groups consumed frequently, often, and rarely. Impacts were assessed using a respondent fixed effects model. RESULTS: Delaying the food consumption module by 15 min in the interview led to an 8%-17% (P < 0.01) decrease in reported Dietary Diversity Scores, a 28% (P < 0.01) decrease in the number of women who consumed a minimum of four dietary groups, and a 40% (P < 0.01) and 11% (P < 0.01) decrease in the reporting of consumption of animal source foods and fruits and vegetables, respectively. Moving the food consumption module closer to the beginning of the interview increased the number of reported food groups consumed by older women, women with a below-median education level, and women in larger households. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that comparisons of descriptive statistics across studies and countries on metrics such as food security and dietary quality may be confounded by where these modules are placed in the interview, thus highlighting trade-offs between volume of information collected and data quality when designing CATI surveys.

COVID-19-Induced Disruptions of School Feeding Services Exacerbate Food Insecurity in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated lockdown measures have disrupted educational and nutrition services globally. Understanding the overall and differential impacts of disruption of nutritional (school feeding) services is critical for designing effective post-COVID-19 recovery policies. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the impact of COVID-19-induced disruption of school feeding services on household food security in Nigeria. METHODS: We combined household-level, pre-COVID-19 in-person survey data with postpandemic phone survey data, along with local government area (LGA)-level information on access to school feeding services. We used a difference-in-difference approach and examined temporal trends in the food security of households with and without access to school feeding services. Of the sampled households, 83% live in LGAs with school feeding services. RESULTS: Households experienced an increase in food insecurity in the post-COVID-19 survey round. The share of households skipping a meal increased by 47 percentage points (95% CI: 44-50 percentage points). COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services increased households' experiences of food insecurity, increasing the probability of skipping a meal by 9 percentage points (95% CI: 3-17 percentage points) and the likelihood of going without eating for a whole day by 3 percentage points (95% CI: 2-11 percentage points). Disruption of school feeding services is associated with a 0.2 SD (95% CI: 0.04-0.41 SD) increase in the food insecurity index. Households residing in states experiencing strict lockdown measures reported further deterioration in food insecurity. Single mothers and poorer households experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security due to disruption of school feeding services. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that COVID-19-induced disruptions in educational and nutritional services have exacerbated households' food insecurity in Nigeria. These findings can inform the designs of immediate and medium-term policy responses, including the designs of social protection policies and alternative programs to substitute nutritional services affected by the pandemic.

COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria.

This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to examine the implication of the COVID-19 pandemic on household food security and labor market participation outcomes in Nigeria. To examine these relationships and implications, we exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures, along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest, using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that households exposed to higher COVID-19 case rates or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that the spread of the pandemic is associated with significant reductions in labor market participation. For instance, lockdown measures are associated with 6-15 percentage points increase in households' experience of food insecurity. Similarly, lockdown measures are associated with 12 percentage points reduction in the probability of participation in non-farm business activities. These lockdown measures have limited implications on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic.